The Location and Allocation of Assets in Pension and Conventional Savings Accounts

This paper addresses two important parts of the problem of saving for retirement. They are (1) if assets are to be held in both conventional (and hence taxable) accounts and pension accounts, which assets should be held in each? and, (2) if the investor is substantially risk averse, what is the optimal mix of stocks and bonds for retirement saving? It is shown that the conventional wisdom of first placing heavily taxed corporate bonds in the pension account (and holding equity mutual funds outside the account) is the wrong asset location strategy for most people and most circumstances. It is also shown that even very risk averse retirement savers should allocate more than half of their portfolio to stocks if asset returns have the same means, variances, and covariances as have been observed over the past seventy years.

New Age Thinking: Alternative Ways of Measuring Age, Their Relationship to Labor Force Participation, Goverment Policies and GDP

The current practice of measuring age as years-since-birth, both in common practice and in the law, rather than alternative measures reflecting a person's stage in the lifecycle distorts important behavior such as retirement, saving, and the discussion of dependency ratios. Two alternative measures of age are explored: mortality risk and remaining life expectancy. With these alternative measures, the huge wave of elderly forecast for the first half of this century doesn't look like a huge wave at all. By conventional 65+ standards, the fraction of the population that is elderly will grow by about 66 percent. However, the fraction of the population that is above a mortality rate that corresponds to 65+ today will grow by only 20 percent. Needless to say, the aging of the society is a lot less dramatic with the alternative mortality-based age measures. In a separate application of age measurement, I examine the consequences of stabilizing labor force participation by age with alternative age definitions. If labor force participation were to remain as it is today with respect to remaining life expectancy (i.e. if the length of retirement stayed where it is today) rather than labor force participation remaining fixed by conventionally-defined age, then there would be 9.6 percent more total labor supply by 2050 in the U.S. This additional labor supply could help finance entitlement programs amongst other things. GDP would be between seven and ten percent higher by 2050 if retirement lengths stabilize. Several policies are examined that would encourage longer work careers.

New Developments in Corporate Finance and Tax Avoidance: Some Evidence

The financial behavior of corporations has changed greatly in the last ten years. Previously most of the cash that stockholders received from corporations took the form of dividends, and economists' models that have dividends as the ultimate determinant of equity values were not far off the mark. This paper documents how much things have changed. There are strong tax incentives for nondividend cash payments between corporations and shareholders. These payments can take the form of a repurchase by the company of its own shares, or the acquisition of the shares in another company. There has been tremendous growth in the magnitude of nondividend cash payments. In the early 1970s these payments amounted to roughly 15 percent of dividends. By 1984, they exceeded dividends, and in 1985 the amounted to $120 billion, or almost 50 percent more than total dividends in the economy. The paper shows that dividends per unit equity have not fallen. Rather, the acquisition of equity has allowed firms to retain relatively constant debt equity ratios in the past five years despite strong equity markets. Firms have chosen to absorb equity and issue debt, roughly holding leverage constant, and have thus saved large amounts of taxes. The paper estimates that the cost to the Treasury of treating share purchase payments differently than dividends was more than$25 billion in 1985. It also finds that future corporate tax collections are significantly reduced by the resulting decline in corporate equity. The paper suggests that the existing model of dividend driven equity valuation must be discarded. It simply is not consistent with the facts. Further research on the form of payments between firms and their shareholders is clearly merited.

Asset Location in Tax-Deferred and Conventional Savings Accounts

The optimal allocation of assets among different asset classes (such as stocks and bonds) has received considerable attention in financial theory and practice. On the other hand, investors have not been given much guidance about which assets should be located in tax-deferred retirement accounts and which in conventional savings accounts. This paper derives optimal asset allocations (which assets to hold) and asset locations (where to hold them) for a risk-averse investor saving for retirement. Locating assets optimally can significantly improve the risk-adjusted performance of retirement savings.

Has the Unified Budget Undermined the Federal Government Trust Funds?

In order to ease the burden on workers during the retirement of the baby boom generation, the 1983 Social Security Reforms set payroll taxes above the level needed to pay current benefits, thus partially prefunding the baby boomers' retirement. The military and civil service retirement programs followed suit in the mid-1980s and switched from pay-as-you-go financing to funded systems. The excess income generated by these retirement programs was held in the federal trust funds, which have accumulated almost $3 trillion since the reforms took place. However, this paper presents evidence that the trust fund build-up may not help future generations due to the adoption of the Unified Budget in 1970. The Unified Budget includes trust fund receipts as income and trust fund payments as expenditures. The empirical evidence suggests that attempts to balance the Unified Budget while the trust funds were generating surpluses has led to increased government spending and personal and corporation income tax cuts within the rest of the federal government. There is no evidence of increased government saving as a result of the trust fund accumulations. An alternate theory of increased national saving is also explored, where increased payroll taxes accompanied by decreased income taxes induces higher personal saving. This mechanism, suggested by Diamond, also does not appear to have significantly enhanced the wealth of future generations.